Survey Methods

(March 2009) The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) has released an updated forecast for selected categories of U.S. agricultural machinery sales, providing an abbreviated "snapshot" of manufacturers' predictions for 2009 business. AEM felt an interim update was required because of the rapid changes in market conditions.

Over the past two years, 2-wheel drive Tractor sales in the 100-horsepower-and-over category, 4-wheel-drive Tractors, and Combines have all seen double digit growth. Growth in these product sectors had been fueled by increased energy demands (in part being met by ethanol production), increased commodity prices and increased net farm income.

This updated forecast, based on AEM member response to a recent "snapshot" poll, suggests that Tractor sales in the United States for 2009 for 4-wheel-drive Tractors and the 100-horsepower-and-over 2-wheel drive Tractors are expected to be flat or even down by up to 10 percent. Combines have maintained their growth rate of the last two years over the first two months of 2009, but are expected to taper off throughout the year compared to the last two years. On the financial side, the forecast indicates that 41.7 percent of manufacturers feel that credit availability will decrease modestly, with the same percentage citing that credit availability will remain about the same.

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