Have you ever wondered if our membership's predictions on the economy are accurate? We have, so we graphed the question on the Industry Conditions Survey that asks respondents to pick the scenario that best matches the outlook for their company for the next 12 months: Above normal growth, normal growth, sluggish growth, flat growth, or recession. We graphed data going back 17+ years. You can see the results below:

Survey data supplied by Association of Equipment Manufacturers

Correlation is not causation, but the results are interesting. The final decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is matched by a similar shape in the predicted growth line about 3 quarters earlier, and the 2002 decline in the DJI is matched by a similar shape in the predicted growth line about 4 quarters earlier.

The predicted growth line is the result of scoring the responses of question #11 on the Industry Condition Survey to yield a single number indicated relative predicted growth.

There are many other questions on the Industry Conditions Survey, and the results could be valuable to your company. Members interested in learning more should contact Steve Duncan (sduncan@aem.org).