Tuesday, Nov. 8th was the start of a weeks-long, if not months-long, process to determine which party wins control of the 118th Congress.
Case in point, this past weekend it was finally determined that Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate. There were several highly competitive races that came down to the wire. In a closely watched race in the swing state of Pennsylvania, Democrats flipped a seat when John Fetterman defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz. In the Sunshine State, Republican Senator Marco Rubio cruised to victory and will remain the senior senator of Florida for six more years. Wisconsinites saw a tight race between the incumbent Senator Ron Johnson and Democrat candidate Mandela Barnes, with Johnson keeping the seat in Republican hands. Democrats held on to two seats in closely watched races in Nevada and Arizona. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly defeated her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, while Senator Mark Kelly won reelection, defeating Republican Blake Masters. All eyes are now on Georgia, where the incumbent Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker will face off once again in a runoff election since neither candidate secured more than 50 percent of the vote.
The outcome of the Dec. 6 runoff election will determine whether Democrats expand their majority to 51-49, or whether the Senate remains split 50-50 between the two parties, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote in the upper chamber. While pundits, pollsters and political operatives crunch the numbers and make their predictions for the remaining undecided races, there are several interesting takeaways emerging from the 2022 midterm elections:
Takeaway 1: Control of the United States House of Representatives requires 218 seats, and while Republicans are still favored to take control of the lower chamber, they will do so with a razor-thin, and potentially ungovernable, majority. Should the Republicans seize the majority, the Speaker will likely have to rely on Democrats to pass any meaningful legislation. With a narrow – likely among the narrowest in history – majority, individual factions within the Republican party will wield enormous power and control the fate of legislation.
Takeaway 2: The House Majority Whip will likely be the most difficult job in Washington, D.C. and there might be a vacancy. Corralling an unruly caucus with different competing interests, policy priorities, and ideologies with almost zero margin for error, will be miserable. Prior to a bill coming to the floor, the Whip is responsible for making sure there are enough votes to pass the legislation. We can expect last-minute schedule changes and bills being pulled off the House calendar prior to floor consideration.
Takeaway 3: President Biden will no longer be held back by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Without the pressure of having to worry about appeasing a House majority, the President will rely on his strong relationships in the Senate and try to find middle ground with the new House majority to pass meaningful legislation. Expect a few surprises on issues of national importance along the way.
Takeaway4: Democracy is a wonderful thing. If the election proves anything, your vote and voice count. So many races came down to the thinnest of margins. In a country as politically divided as ours, the importance of getting engaged in the political process cannot be overstated. Join AEM in our efforts to support the equipment manufacturing industry. Signup for our I Make America grassroots campaign, host your elected officials, come to Washington, D.C. for our annual fly-in, or contact someone on the AEM Advocacy Team with your ideas for how to strengthen our industry and our country. While there will be a lot of twists and turns next year in Washington, D.C., AEM will be there to make sense of it all and continue to relentlessly make the case for the equipment manufacturing industry. To learn more, please contact AEM’s Advocacy Team at advocacy@aem.org.
Subscribe to the AEM Industry Advisor for more AEM news and updates.